2011 NCAA TOURNAMENT
PREDICTIONS
To formulate a prediction for each NCAA tournament game, we averaged the results of 20 simulated games with the computer coaching each side. Because the simulation is based on actual statistical results, the favorite is very likely to win on average. In any given game, however, a less talented team might get lucky. Thus, in the early rounds, the important thing to take away from the predictions is not the average results (which almost always favor the favorite), but the chance of upset. In the later rounds, when the teams are more evenly matched, the average results become more interesting.
This is another tough year for NCAA Predictions. There are lots of teams that could very easily make it to the Final Four. For example, the number one seed, Ohio State, has to play a very good Kentucky team in the third round. The computer simulations give Ohio State only a 50% chance to win that game. Kentucky, Duke and Texas, in particular, are just about as likely to make it to the Final Four as Ohio State, Pittsburgh and San Diego State. The only team that really stands out is Kansas. Based on the computer simulations, the chances of the four teams the computer simulations picked to go to the Final Four to win it all are: Kansas 17.2%, Ohio State 7.4%, San Diego State 4.9% and Pittsburgh 3.5%. Nonetheless, the computer simulations give Kansas only a 50/50 chance to beat Ohio State in the Championship.
FIRST FOUR
UTSA 68, Alabama St. 59 Chance of upset: 30%
To win, Alabama St. will have to contain UTSA's guards and avoid turnovers. Melvin Johnson scored 29 and UTSA won 70-61.
Clemson 71, UAB 64 Chance of upset: 25%
If Clemson outrebounds UAB and holds Sanders under 20 points, both of which are likely, Clemson will win. Sanders scored 19, but Clemson won anyway, 70-58.
VCU 73, USC 66 Chance of upset: 15%
Vucevic likely to get a double double for USC, but VCU has multiple players who can score and USC lacks the defense to stop them. Vucevic had 11 points and 14 rebounds, but VCU won 59-46.
NC Asheville 76, AR Little Rock 67 Chance of upset: 15%
AR Little Rock will have to have an outstanding defensive effort and force lots of turnovers to beat NC Asheville. NC Asheville shot 50% and won in overtime, 81-77.
FIRST ROUND
EAST
(1) Ohio St. 80, (16) UTSA 61 Chance of upset: less than 10%
Ohio State's defense will be too much for UTSA. Ohio State won 75-46 and held UTSA to 34% shooting.
(8) George Mason 73, (9) Villanova 74 Chance of upset: 50%
These are two evenly matched teams. Two of 20 games went to overtime. Expect a physical game with lots of fouls. George Mason won a close one 61-57. There were 34 fouls.
(5) West Virginia 63, (12) Clemson 71 Chance of upset: 65%
Clemson is likely to make more three-pointers and more free throws and pull off the upset. Clemson was only 5 for 21 from three-point range and West Virginia won, 84-76.
(4) Kentucky 82, (13) Princeton 66 Chance of upset: less than 10%
Unless Kentucky plays an uncharacteristically sloppy game, the Wildcats' superior ball handling and excellent defense should lead to an easy win. Kentucky played a solid game, but barely squeaked by, 59-57.
(6) Xavier 73, (11) Marquette 78 Chance of upset: 70%
Expect a good game. Marquette is likely to do a better job of taking care of the ball and getting to the free throw line to win. Marquette won 66-55.
(3) Syracuse 74, (14) Indiana St. 58 Chance of upset: less than 10%
Syracuse will win by playing superior defense and getting to the free throw line. Syracuse won 77-60. The Orangemen oushot Indiana State 52% to 40% and made 24 of 31 free throws.
(7) Washington 71, (10) Georgia 69 Chance of upset: 40%
Georgia has a good chance to upset Washington if the Bulldogs can slow down the pace of the game, rebound and get to the free throw line. In a high scoring game, Washington is very likely to win. Washington won 68-65. Georgia made it close by outrebounding the Huskies and getting to the free throw line, but the Bulldogs made 14 of 19 free throws versus 12 fo 14 for Washington..
(2) North Carolina 78, (15) Long Island 68 Chance of upset: less than 10%
Long Island could make it a close game if they can slow down the pace and avoid turnovers, but North Carolina is very likely to roll. North Carolina won 102-87.
WEST
(1)Duke 84, (16)Hampton 61 Chance of upset: less than 10%
Duke's superior rebounding and uncanny ability to get to the free throw line will lead to an easy victory. Duke won easily, 87-45. The Blue Devils held Hampton to 34.5% shooting and made 14 of 16 free throws versus Hampton's 3 of 7.
(8)Michigan 72, (9)Tennessee 66 Chance of upset: 35%
Michigan is likely to win by making more three-pointers and free-throws. Tennessee will likely have the edge in rebounding and can win if they can make their threes and/or get to the line. Michigan won 75-45, making 9 of 26 threes versus Tennessee's 3 of 18. Michigan played great defense and shut down Tennessee in the secnod half.
(5)Arizona 78, (12)Memphis 73 Chance of upset: 40%
This game will come down to defense. If Arizona shoots the ball well, they will win by a large margin, if Memphis can keep the Wildcats from shooting the ball well, this could be an upset. Memphis outshot Arizona 49% to 46%, but Arizona held on to win, 77-75.
(4)Texas 80, (13)Oakland 67 Chance of upset: 20%
Texas should roll, but if Benson has the game of his life, Oakland could pull off the upset. In simulations Oakland won, Benson averaged 16 points and 15 rebounds. Texas won 85-81. Benson had 15 points and 11 rebounds, but shot only 6 of 15 from the field.
(6)Cincinnati 77, (11)Missouri 74 Chance of upset: 30%
Expect a great game. Four of 20 simulations went to overtime. If Missouri can force more than 15 Cincinnati turnovers and speed up the pace of the game, Missouri will get the upset. Cincinnati had only 11 turnovers and won easily, 78-63.
(3)Connecticut 71, (14)Bucknell 65 Chance of upset: 20%
Bucknell's ability to hit the three-pointer makes them dangerous. The Bison will have to have a great rebounding and defensive effort to keep the game close enough for it to matter. Bucknell made 7 three-pointers, but allowed Connecticut to shoot 48.5% and outrebound the Bison 43-21. Connecicut won easily 81-52.
(7)Temple 76, (10)Penn St. 63 Chance of upset: 10%
Temple's defense and ability to get to the free throw line should lead to an easy victory. Temple allowed Penn State to shoot 48.1%, but won at the free throw line, going 13 for 15 versus Penn State's 4 for 6. Temple 66, Penn State 64.
(2)San Diego St. 84, (15)Northern Colorado 64 Chance of upset: less than 10%
San Diego State's defense and rebounding will be too much for Northern Colorado. San Diego State held Northern Colorado to 33.9% shooting and outrebounded Northern Colorado 42-31 for the easy 68-50 win.
SOUTHWEST
(1)Kansas 85, (16)Boston U. 54 Chance of upset: less than 10%
The Kansas defense will be too much for Boston University. Kansas held BU to 35% shooting and won 72 to 53.
(8)UNLV 71,(9)Illinois 70 Chance of upset: 45%
Expect a great game between these two evenly matched teams. The team that hits its three-pointers and plays better perimeter defense will win. Illinois made 54% of their three-pointers and won 73 to 62.
(5)Vanderbilt 75, (12)Richmond 70 Chance of upset: 35%
Expect a pretty good game, but a Vanderbilt victory. Vanderbilt will probably get the edge by getting to the free throw stripe more. If Harper has a big game or Anderson has the game of his life, Richmond could get the upset. Anderson scored 25 points and Harper scored 13 to give Richmond a 69-66 victory despite Vanderbilt going 14 for 23 from the free throw line versus Richmond's 5 for 12.
(4)Louisville 79, (13)Morehead St. 62 Chance of upset: less than 10%
Louisville will use the three and its pressure D to beat Morehead State easily. That said, if Louisville comes out flat and Harper and Faried both have outstanding games inside, Morehead State has a remote chance of winning. Louisville came out flat and spotted Morehead State a 10-0 lead. Harper made the game-winning three-pointer and Faried had 12 points, 17 rebounds and blocked Louisville's last shot.
(6)Georgetown 71, (11)VCU 72 Chance of upset: 55%
If Georgetown plays their best, VCU is no match, but Georgetown turnovers and fouls are more likely than not to lead to a VCU victory in a close game. VCU blew out the Hoyas 74-56. Georgetown had 17 turnovers and commited 26 fouls.
(3)Purdue 70, (14)St. Peters 62 Chance of upset: 15%
Purdue's JaJuan Johnson should be too much for St. Peter's inside and Etwan Moore will likely score 20, but if St. Peter's hits their three-pointers and holds the other Purdue players in check, they could give Purdue a big surprise and keep the game close. Four of 20 simulations went to overtime. Purdue won easily, 65-43.
(7)Texas A&M 63, (10)Florida St. 66 Chance of upset: 55%
Expect a close game. The team with the fewest turnovers won 80% of the time in the matchup. Florida State will probably get a slight edge on the boards and win. Florida State' defense was too much for Texas A&M. The Seminoles won 57-50.
(2)Notre Dame 83, (15)Akron 67 Chance of upset: 20%
Notre Dame should get to the free throw line and win this game easily. However, if Akron can get to the free throw line more, the Zips might be able to upset the Irish. Notre Dame made 20 of 26 free throws versus Akron's 3 of 6. The Irish won easily, 69-56.
SOUTHEAST
(1)Pittsburgh 75,(16) NC Asheville 63 Chance of upset: less than 10%
Pittsburgh's defense and rebounding should lead to victory over NC Asheville. Pittsburgh held NC Asheville to 30.9 percent shooting and won the battle of the boards 44 to 24 for the easy 74-51 win.
(8)Butler 69, (9)Old Dominion 71 Chance of upset: 55%
This should be a great game. The difference will be defense and rebounding. In a great game, Butler edged Old Dominion 60-58 by outshooting Old Dominion 40.7% to 35.6% and outrebounding Old Dominion 27 to 26.
(5)Kansas St. 71, (12)Utah St. 76 Chance of upset: 70%
Utah State plays an easy schedule and racks up some good statistics every year, then loses in the first round. Will this be the year that Utah State upsets somebody? The computer thinks so. Utah State outshot Kansas State 46% to 40.7%, but Kansas State held on to win 73-68.
(4)Wisconsin 81, (13)Belmont 78 Chance of upset: 40%
Belmont and Wisconsin are both extremely well coached teams. They both take good care of the basketball, they can both make the three-pointer and they both play good defense. The key to this game is tempo. Belmont uses its whole bench and likes to run at a fast pace. Wisconsin plays at a slower pace. Watch out for the upset. Wisconsin slowed the game down and made more threes, winning easily, 72-58.
(6)St. Johns 70, (11)Gonzaga 73 Chance of upset: 75%
Gonzaga's superior depth and ability to get to the free throw line will likely lead to an upset in a close game. If Kennedy were healthy, it would still be close, but St. Johns would have a 60% chance to win. Gonzaga went 21 for 26 from the free throw line and won 86-71.
(3)BYU 84, (14)Wofford 67 Chance of upset: less than 10%
BYU has still got Jimmer. The loss of Brandon Davies is not going to hurt the Cougars against Wofford. BYU should win easily. Fredette scored 32 points and BYU won 74-66.
(7)UCLA 68, (10)Michigan St. 69 Chance of upset: 55%
These two wildly inconsistent teams were equally inconsistent during the simulations. Some games UCLA would dominate, others Michigan State would dominate. There were a few close ones as well. Anything could happen in this game. Most likely, Michigan State will get to the free throw line a bit more and win. In the event, we had all two blow outs and a close game. UCLA won the first half 42-24 and Michigan State won the second half 52-36. In the end, Michigan State's comeback fell short and UCLA won a close one 78-76.
(2)Florida 77, (15)UCSB 65 Chance of upset: 15%
Florida is not only a much better team, but they get to play 2,000 miles closer to home. If Johnson and Nunnally have the games of their lives, UCSB might be able to beat Florida, but don't bet on it. Florida rolled 79-51.
SECOND ROUND
EAST
(1)Ohio St 80, (9)Villanova 68 Chance of upset: 15%
Ohio State does a better job of taking care of the basketball and shooting the three-pointer. The Buckeyes should be able to beat Villanova easily, especially in Cleveland. Ohio State beat George Mason 98-66.
(4)Kentucky 76, (12)Clemson 69 Chance of upset: 25%
Kentucky's defense should carry them to victory. Jones will likely have a double double. If Clemson outrebounds Kentucky and makes a lot of threes, they could get the upset. Kentucky beat West Virginia 71-63.
(3)Syracuse 73, (11)Marquette 69 Chance of upset: 40%
Syracuse is the better team between these Big East rivals, but if Marquette plays excellent defense and Johnson-Odom has a great game, Marquette could pull the upset. Marquette forced 18 Syracuse turnovers, Johnson-Odom scored 17 and Marquette won 66-62.
(2)North Carolina 74, (7)Washington 72 Chance of upset: 45%
This should be an exciting game between two teams with an up tempo style. North Carolina should win a close one due to a little bit better defense. North Carolina won a close one 86-83, oushooting Washington 47% to 46% and forcing 13 Washington turnovers versus 9 for NC.
WEST
(1)Duke 83, Michigan 71 Chance of upset: 10%
Duke's superior perimeter defense should lead to a victory. If Michigan gets hot from three-point range and Smith, Singler and Curry have off nights, Michigan might get the upset. Smith scored 24 and Duke won a close one, 73-71.
(4)Texas 78, (5)Arizona 72 Chance of upset: 25%
Texas is the better team, but if Arizona can make 10 or more three-pointers and beat Texas on the boards, the Wildcats could win the game. Texas played like boneheads and Arizona stole the game 70-69. Arizona made 8 threes versus 3 for Texas and outrebounded Texas by 1.
(3)Connecticut 68, (6)Cincinnati 69 Chance of upset: 60%
Expect a great game between these two evenly matched Big East teams. Defense will decide the game. Connecticut won 69-58, outshooting Cincinnati 43% to 40%.
(2)San Diego St. 69, (7)Temple 66 Chance of upset: 40%
This should be a close game. San Diego St. should have the edge on the boards, but Temple should have the better defense. Playing in Tucson should help San Diego St. San Diego St. won the battle of the boards 40-30 and played better defense to win 71-64.
SOUTHWEST
(1)Kansas 79, (8)UNLV 68 Chance of upset: 15%
UNLV has a pretty good team and may give Kansas a very close game, but Kansas has too much power inside and should win. Kansas beat Illinois 73-59.
(4)Louisville 75, (5)Vanderbilt 70 Chance of upset: 30%
Louisville's superior defense should be the deciding factor, but if Vanderbilt can get the ball inside and get to the free throw line, the Commodores could win. Richmond beat Morehead State 65-48.
(3)Purdue 74, (11) VCU 70 Chance of upset: 35%
Purdue is a better, more athletic team, but the simulations between Purdue and VCU were very close, including two overtime games. If Skeen and Burgess both have a great game, VCU could beat Purdue. VCU dominated Purdue, 94-76. Burgess had 23 and Skeen had 13, but Rodriguez and his 11 assists were the difference.
(2)Notre Dame 72, (10)Florida State 69 Chance of upset: 45%
Notre Dame is the better team, but Florida State is capable of playing defense and rebounding well enough to beat the Irish. This should be a very good game. Florida State held the Irish to 30.6% shooting and won easily, 71-57.
SOUTHEAST
(1)Pittsburgh 69, (9)Old Dominion 65 Chance of upset: 30%
If Hassel has a great game on both ends of the floor, Old Dominion could beat Pittsburgh. Butler beat Pittsburgh 71-70.
(4)Wisconsin 77, (12)Utah St. 76 Chance of upset: 45%
Wisconsin should have the edge because of their excellent job of taking care of the ball, but Utah State shoots extremely well and could get the upset. Wisconsin beat Kansas State 70-65.
(3) BYU 82, (11) Gonzaga 68 Chance of upset: 10%
Fredettes' scoring and BYU's superior defense should lead to a win over Gonzaga. Fredette scored 34 and BYU outshot Gonzaga 53% to 42% for the 89-67 BYU victory.
(2) Florida 73, (10) Michigan St. 68 Chance of upset: 30%
For Michigan State to win, the Spartans will have to shoot the ball very well and play excellent defense. Florida beat UCLA 73-65.
THIRD ROUND
EAST
(1) Ohio State 76, (4) Kentucky 75 Chance of upset: 50%
This should be a great, great game. It is dead even. We simulated this one 100 times to make sure. Ohio State won 50, Kentucky won 50. Ohio State's key to victory is Sullinger. If he has a good game, Ohio State is likely to win. Kentucky's key to victory is to avoid turnovers and stop Sullinger. Sullinger had 21 points and 16 rebounds, but Kentucky played great defense. The Wildcats held OSU to 33% shooting and had 11 blocked shots. Kentucky won a close one, 62-60.
(2) North Carolina 68, (3) Syracuse 70 Chance of upset: 60%
Should be a very close game. Three of 20 simulations went to overtime and 10 of 20 were decided by two points or less. North Carolina must get good games from Barnes, Hensen and Zeller to beat Syracuse's superior defense. North Carolina beat Marquette, 81-63.
WEST
(1) Duke75, (4) Texas 76 Chance of upset: 50%
This is another extremely close game. We ran 100 simulations of this one and it came out 50 to 50. Texas gets the nod by the narrowest of margins. If Irving comes back, if Duke gets 27 or more out of Smith and/or if Duke has a great defensive effort, the Blue Devils will hold on. Arizona beat Duke 93-77.
(2) San Diego St. 72, (6) Cincinnati 68 Chance of upset: 30%
The battle inside is key and San Diego State is likely to win it. Expect a good game from Leonard. If Gates has a good game or Cincinnati's defense can shut down San Diego State inside, the Bearcats could get the upset. Connecticut beat San Diego State 74-67.
SOUTHWEST
(1) Kansas 80, (4) Louisville 70 Chance of upset: 20%
Louisville needs to force lots of turnovers and stop the Morris brothers inside, especially Marcus. The Cardinals are unlikely to do either. Kansas beat Richmond 77-57.
(2) Notre Dame 83, (3) Purdue 76 Chance of upset: 35%
Notre Dame has more offensive weapons than Purdue and should win. Purdue will need to outrebound Notre Dame and will need a great game out of Moore to get the upset. VCU beat Florida State 72-71 in overtime.
SOUTHEAST
(1) Pittsburgh 79, (4) Wisconsin 75 Chance of upset: 35%
Pittsburgh will beat Wisconsin inside for the victory. Butler continued to defy the odds and beat Wisconsin 61-54.
(2) Florida 74, (3) BYU 76 Chance of upset: 55%
BYU will need to have one or two scorers other than Fredette and an excellent defensive effort to win. In about half the simulations, BYU got both. Fredette was the only BYU player who scored in double digits and Florida outshot BYU 48% to 35% en route to an 83-74 Florida win.
FOURTH ROUND
(1) Ohio State 73, (3) Syracuse 68 Chance of upset: 35%
Ohio State's superior guard play will likely be the difference in the game. If Jackson has a big game for Syracuse inside and Syracuse is able to do a reasonably good job of guarding the perimeter, the Orangemen could get the upset. Kentucky beat North Carolina 76-69.
(2) San Diego St. 74, (4) Texas 72 Chance of upset: 35%
This game will come down to rebounds. The team with more rebounds won 19 of 20 simulations. Leonard is likely to get the most rebounds and lead San Diego State to the Final Four. Connecticut beat Arizona 65-63.
(1) Kansas 82, (2) Notre Dame 77 Chance of upset: 25%
The Jayhawks superior defense should lead them to the Final Four. If Notre Dame is able to dominate the boards, however, the Irish could get the upset. VCU beat Kansas 71-61. The Jayhawks couldn't make a three-pointer or a free throw and VCU played great as they have all tournament.
(1) Pittsburgh 75, (3) BYU 73 Chance of upset: 30%
Pittsburgh will likely get to the ball inside and get to the free throw line. If the Panthers make their free throws, they'll win. Butler beat Florida 74-71 in overtime.
FINAL FOUR
(1) Ohio State 74, (2) San Diego State72 Chance of upset: 40%
San Diego State must shoot the ball very well to win, but San Diego State is capable of shooting the ball very well.
(1) Kansas 80, (1) Pittsburgh 69 Chance of upset: 25%
The Kansas defense will make it difficult for Pittsburgh to get good shots. Pittsburgh will need to slow down the pace of the game to have a chance.
CHAMPIONSHIP
(1) Ohio State 81, (1) Kansas 82 Chance of upset: 50%
This should be a championship game for the ages. Ohio State has better guard play, Kansas is better in transition. If Kansas plays good perimeter defense they will win. If Ohio State's guards shoot the ball well and Sullinger gets to the free throw line 8 times or more, Ohio State will win.