2009 NCAA TOURNAMENT
PREDICTIONS
In 2008, the game displayed its amazing accuracy by successfully predicting all four of the final four teams, predicting Kansas and Memphis would meet in the finals, and predicting Kansas would win the championship! Here are the 2009 Predictions!
To formulate a prediction for each NCAA tournament game, we averaged the results of 20 simulated games with the computer coaching each side. Because the simulation is based on actual statistical results, the favorite is very likely to win on average. In any given game, however, a less talented team might get lucky. Thus, in the early rounds, the important thing to take away from the predictions is not the average results (which almost always favor the favorite), but the chance of upset. In the later rounds, when the teams are more evenly matched, the average results become more interesting.
FIRST ROUND
Midwest
Alabama State 68, Morehead State 66 (chance of upset: 50%)
Two evenly matched teams. Result will come down to rebounding. If Faried has a big game for Morehead State, Alabama State is in trouble.
Louisville 73, Alabama State 56 (chance of upset: less than 10%)
Ohio State 75, Sienna 67 (chance of upset: 30%)
Ohio State is practically playing at home, but if the Buckeyes commit a lot of turnovers or Hasbrouck has a great game, Sienna could pull off the upset.
Utah 78, Arizona 71 (chance of upset: 50%)
Utah is vulnerable to big games by Wise, Budinger and/or Hill.
Wake Forest 71, Cleveland St. 62 (chance of upset: less than 10%)
West Virginia 73, Dayton 66 (chance of upset: 35%)
West Virginia’s defense and rebounding should be too much for Dayton, but if Wright has a big game and Dayton shoots well, Dayton could pull off an upset.
Kansas 83, North Dakota St. 77 (chance of upset: 15%)
North Dakota State has no answer for Aldrich inside, but if Woodside and Nelson get hot from three-point range, North Dakota State could get lucky.
Boston College 72, USC 71 (chance of upset: 40%)
Expect a very close game. If USC can draw fouls and get to the free throw line, they have a good chance of winning.
Michigan St. 74, Robert Morris 62 (chance of upset: less than 10%)
West
Connecticut 87, Chattanooga 52 (chance of upset: less than 10%)
BYU 75, Texas A&M 63 (chance of upset: 15%)
BYU’s rebounding ability and ability to hold on to the ball should propel them to an easy victory over Texas A&M.
Purdue 84, Northern Iowa 71 (chance of upset: less than 10%).
Washington 75, Mississippi St. 72 (chance of upset: 45%)
Washington is playing in Portland, which gives them the home court edge, but Mississippi State’s defense and rebounding give them a good chance of an upset.
Marquette 76, Utah St. 79 (chance of upset: 50%)
Playing in Boise will give Utah State a boost. Expect 20 points and 8 rebounds at least from Wilkinson.
Missouri 84, Cornell 67 (chance of upset: less than 10%)
Missouri’s defense will be too much for Cornell. In the one simulated game Cornell won, Wittman scored 28 points, including six three-pointers.
California 72, Maryland 75 (chance of upset: 50%)
This should be a great game. These two teams are very closely matched.
Memphis 64, CSU Northridge 50 (chance of upset: less than 10%)
The Memphis defense is way too much for CSU Northridge. Expect lots of CSU Northridge turnovers.
East
Pittsburgh 82, East Tenn St. 67 (chance of upset: less than 10%)
This is a matchup of the Panthers’ inside game against the Buccaneers’ outside game. Expect Pittsburgh’s defense and inside dominance to carry them to an easy victory.
Oklahoma St. 83, Tennessee 81 (chance of upset: 40%)
This should be an exciting, high scoring game.
Florida St. 68, Wisconsin 67 (chance of upset 40%)
Expect a very close game. Douglas is likely to have a good game for Florida State whether they win or lose. The key to victory is Hughes. If he has a good game for Wisconsin, Wisconsin will win.
Xavier 76, Portland St. 59 (chance of upset: less than 10%)
Xavier’s defense and rebounding is too much for Portland State.
UCLA 79, VCU 69 (chance of upset: less than 10%)
VCU could make a game out of it if Maynor and Rodriguez are hot, but expect a UCLA victory.
Villanova 82, American 66 (chance of upset: less than 10%)
Villanova, practically playing at home, will dominate the boards and easily beat American.
Texas 67, Minnesota 62 (chance of upset: 30%)
Three games out of 20 went to overtime. Minnesota’s excellent defense could give Texas trouble.
Duke 81, Binghamton 63 (chance of upset: 10%)
South
North Carolina 89, Radford 64 (chance of upset: less than 10%)
LSU 73, Butler 67 (chance of upset: 30%)
LSU’s ability to get to the free throw line will give them the edge.
Illinois 70, Western Kentucky 68 (chance of upset: 40%)
If Illinois can’t make its three pointers, look for an upset.
Gonzaga 80, Akron 55 (chance of upset: less than 10%)
Gonzaga gets the home court advantage in Portland and will drub Akron.
Arizona St. 69, Temple 67 (chance of upset: 40%)
Two evenly matched team. This will be a close one. Expect a good game from Harden.
Syracuse 75, SF Austin 63 (chance of upset: less than 10%)
Expect a big game from Flynn as Syracuse rolls.
Clemson 82, Michigan 63 (chance of upset: less than 10%)
Clemson’s defense and rebounding will be too much for Michigan.
Oklahoma 81, Morgan St. 57
Blake Griffin will score 20 and pull down 15 rebounds and Oklahoma’s defense will stifle Morgan State.
SECOND ROUND
Midwest
Louisville 71, Ohio St. 62 (chance of upset: less than 10%)
Turnovers will be Ohio State’s undoing. Even playing in nearby Dayton won’t save the Buckeyes.
Wake Forest 79, Utah 66 (chance of upset: 25%)
Wake Forest’s defense and athleticism will be too much for Utah.
Kansas 73, West Virginia 63 (chance of upset: 15%)
Kansas will control the boards and likely win the game.
Michigan St. 71, Boston College 72 (chance of upset: 55%)
This should be a great game between two evenly matched teams.
West
Connecticut 73, BYU 50 (chance of upset: less than 10%)
Adrien’s offense and Connecticut’s team defense will be too much for BYU.
Washington 72, Purdue 75 (chance of upset: 60%)
Despite Washington having the home team advantage playing in Portland, unless Brockman or Dentomon has a big game, Purdue will win.
Missouri 79, Utah St. 76 (chance of upset: 25%)
This game was a lot closer than I expected. Missouri should win, but if Utah State’s duo of Wilkinson and Wesley manage to out-rebound the Tigers, watch out for the upset. Playing in Boise helps Utah State.
Memphis 71, Maryland 61 (chance of upset: 10%)
In most of the simulated games, Maryland was held to less than 40% shooting from the field.
East
Pittsburgh 82, Oklahoma St. 72 (chance of upset: 10%)
The Panthers’ inside game and defense is too much for Oklahoma State. Blair averaged 18 points and 13 rebounds in the simulated games.
Xavier 66, Florida St. 55 (chance of upset: 20%)
Douglas will need to score 30 for Florida State to win.
Villanova 68, UCLA 67 (chance of upset: 50%)
Villanova has the home team advantage playing in Philadelphia. That should give the Wildcats the edge in this extremely close matchup.
Duke 75, Texas 69 (chance of upset: 20%)
Texas should give Duke a pretty good game, but Duke should win.
South
North Carolina 85, LSU 78 (chance of upset: 10%)
Playing in Greensboro will give North Carolina the edge they need to overcome LSU, but look for a close game.
Gonzaga 71, Illinois 54 (chance of upset: less than 10%)
The Zags should crush Illinois in Portland.
Syracuse 74, Arizona St. 67 (chance of upset: 10%)
Syracuse’s depth should enable the Orangemen to overcome Arizona State.
Oklahoma 83, Clemson 72 (chance of upset: 10%)
Clemson has no answer for Blake Griffin. Oklahoma should win.
THIRD ROUND
Midwest
Louisville 62, Wake Forest 65 (chance of upset: 60%)
To win, favorite Louisville will have to stay out of foul trouble and control the boards. Both will be difficult. Expect an upset.
Kansas 77, Boston College 61 (chance of upset: less than 10%)
The Kansas defense will be too much for Boston College. Expect a BC shooting percentage of less than 40%.
West
Connecticut 66, Purdue 62 (chance of upset: 40%)
Connecticut’s superior shooting percentage should lead them to victory, but if Purdue out-rebounds Connecticut and avoids turnovers, the Boilermakers could pull off an upset.
Memphis 67, Missouri 66 (chance of upset: 40%)
Expect a wild game. Both teams play great defense and force lots of turnovers. Either could win.
East
Pittsburgh 76, Xavier 64 (chance of upset: less than 10%)
Xavier turnovers will lead to their undoing against Pitt.
Duke 77, Villanova 70 (chance of upset: 20%)
Villanova needs to avoid the fouls and turnovers to pull an upset over the Blue Devils.
South
North Carolina 84, Gonzaga 70 (chance of upset: less than 10%)
North Carolina will find a way to beat the Zags.
Oklahoma 70, Syracuse 68 (chance of upset: 40%)
The key to victory in this tight contest will likely be defense and rebounding. Blake Griffin delivers plenty of both for Oklahoma.
FOURTH ROUND
Midwest
Kansas 61, Wake Forest 67 (chance of upset: 70%)
Whoever gets to the free throw line more will win this one. Wake Forest is likely to get to the free throw line more.
West
Connecticut 68, Memphis 62 (chance of upset: 35%)
Memphis has a decent chance to upset the Huskies, but man-for-man, Connecticut has the better team.
East
Pittsburgh 76, Duke 72 (chance of upset: 40%)
Expect a great game. Out of 20 simulated games, 12 were decided by one point.
South
North Carolina 84, Oklahoma 73 (chance of upset: 20%)
This game features a great matchup between Tyler Hansbrough and Blake Griffin. Even if Blake Griffin gets the better of the matchup, the rest of North Carolina’s lineup is better than Oklahoma’s.
FINAL FOUR
Connecticut 69, Wake Forest 64 (chance of upset: 35%)
Pittsburgh 75, North Carolina 88 (even seeds—90% chance of N.C. victory)
Hansbrough will get the better of Blair and North Carolina will win in a high scoring game.
Connecticut 77, North Carolina 78 (even seeds—60% chance of N.C. victory)
Expect a great game. Both teams have lots of players that could step up.