2010 NCAA TOURNAMENT                PREDICTIONS
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				In 2008, the game displayed its amazing accuracy by successfully predicting all four of the final four teams, predicting Kansas and Memphis would meet in the finals, and predicting Kansas would win the championship!  In 2009, the game did it again, predicting North Carolina would win the championship!  The 2010 predictions are below. To formulate a prediction for each NCAA tournament game, we averaged the results of 20 simulated games with the computer coaching each side.  Because the simulation is based on actual statistical results, the favorite is very likely to win on average.  In any given game, however, a less talented team might get lucky.  Thus, in the early rounds, the important thing to take away from the predictions is not the average results (which almost always favor the favorite), but the chance of upset.  In the later rounds, when the teams are more evenly matched, the average results become more interesting. 2010 Looks like it will be the year of the upset.  There is more parity in 2010 than in any other year we have simulated. PLAY-IN-GAME Winthrop 69, AR Pine Bluff 62 Chance of upset: 15% The key factor should be turnovers.  Winthrop takes better care of the ball and should win.   In the event, AR Pine Bluff played terrific defense and won easily, 61-44. FIRST ROUND EAST (1) Kentucky 82 , (16) East Tenn. St. 55 Chance of upset: less than 10% Kentucky is too much for East Tenn. St.  Any of Wall, Patterson or Bledsoe could end up with 20 points and Cousins is likely to have a double-double.   Bledsoe scored 29, Patterson 22 and Wall 17, and Cousins had 5 points and 8 rebounds in 24 minutes, as Kentucky rolled 100-71. (8)Texas 74, (9)Wake Forest 69 Chance of upset: 25%  Expect a big game from James and Texas depth to overcome Wake Forest.  For Wake Forest to win, Smith and Aminu both have to have a huge game.   Smith scored 19 points and had 12 rebounds.  Aminu scored 20 and pulled down 15.  Wake Forest won in overtime, 81-80. (5)Temple 73, (12)Cornell 71  Chance of upset: 30%  Cornell could surprise Temple if Wittman gets hot.  Fernandez and Brooks both need to have a good game for Temple to win.   Wittman was 7 of 10 from the field en route to a 20-point game and Cornell won 78-65. (4)Wisconsin 78, (13)Wofford 66 Chance of upset: 10% To win, Wofford will need Dahlman to have the game of his life and will need to get to the free throw line more than Wisconsin, which is unlikely.   Dahlman had only 10 points and Wisconsin won 53-49. (6)Marquette 76, (11)Washington 77 Chance of upset: 60%   Pondexter is the key to the game.  If he has a big game, Washington wins.  If he gets in foul trouble, Marquette wins.   Pondexter had 18 points and 11 rebounds.  Washington won 80-78. (3)New Mexico 79, (14)Montana 73 Chance of upset: 30%  More than half the time, New Mexico won the simulations by 10 or more.  However, Montana shoots the ball well.  If Montana is close at the end of the game, Montana has a good chance to pull off the upset. New Mexico won 62-57. (7)Clemson 72, (10)Missouri 75 Chance of upset: 60%  Expect an upset.  For Clemson to win, either Young needs to come off the bench and hit a bunch of threes or Clemson needs to play terrific defense and force a lot of turnovers.  Young made 5 of 8 from three-point range, but Missouri still won 86-78. (2)West Virginia 85, (15)Morgan St. 73 Chance of upset: 20% West Virginia should dominate the boards, get to the free throw line and win easily.  However, if Morgan St. plays great defense and Thompson has a terrific game, Morgan St. could pull off the big upset.  Holmes will score a lot of points for Morgan St. win or lose.  West Virginia outrebounded Morgan State and made more than twice as many free throws to win 77-50. MIDWEST (1)Kansas 88, (16)Lehigh 60 Chance of upset: less than 10%  Kansas is too big and too quick for Lehigh. Kansas won 90-74. (8)UNLV 67, (9)Northern Iowa 69 Chance of upset:  50%  Keys to the game are UNLV’s Willis and Stanback.  If they both have a good game, UNLV will win by 10.  If either of them has a bad game, Northern Iowa will win by 10.   Willis was 5 of 15 from the field and UNLV lost 69-66. (5)Michigan St. 82, (12)New Mexico St. 70 Chance of upset: 15%  The Spartans should be able to control the boards and win easily.  Expect Lucas, Allen, Summers and Morgan all to score in double figures.   Lucas, Summers and Morgan all scored in double figures, but Allen did not.  Michigan State won a close one, 70-67. (4)Maryland 92, (13)Houston 78 Chance of upset: less than 10%  Aubrey Coleman will score a lot of points for Houston, but Maryland’s defense and rebounding will be too much for the Cougars.  Coleman scored 26, but Maryland dominated the boards  and won 89-77. (6)Tennessee 68, (11)San Diego St. 67 Chance of upset: 40%  If Leonard and Thomas have a good game on the boards, San Diego St. will win by 10 points or more.  If not, Tennessee will pull out a close victory. Leonard got 10 boards, but Thomas only got 5.  Tennessee won 62-59. (3)Georgetown 79, (14)Ohio 69  Chance of upset: 30%  If Georgetown gets lazy, plays lax defense and fails to hold on to the ball, Ohio could pull off a big upset.  It is more likely that Georgetown outshoots Ohio by 10 or 15 percent and wins easily.  Georgetown allowed Ohio to shoot 58 percent from the field and turned the ball over 18 times.  Ohio won 97-83. (7)Oklahoma St. 65, (10)Georgia Tech 70 Chance of upset: 65% Expect a close game between these two evenly matched teams.  Georgia Tech gets the nod because of a deeper bench.   Georgia Tech won a close one, 65-59. (2)Ohio St. 78, (15)UC Santa Barbara 62 Chance of upset: less than 10% Ohio State will roll.  It is possible for UC Santa Barbara to win, but it would take a sloppy game by Ohio State and a terrific game by all of Johnson, Nunnally and Powell.   Nunnally was 2 for 10 from the field and Ohio State rolled, 68-51. SOUTH (1)Duke 83, (16)Winthrop 66 Chance of upset: 10% In the unlikely event two of Duke’s “big three”, Scheyer, Smith and Singler, go cold, Winthrop could pull off a miracle.  Scheyer, Smith and Singler all scored in double figures and Duke won easily, 73-44. (8)California 72, (9)Louisville 76 Chance of upset: 60%  This close game will come down to defense.  Odds are that Pitino’s team will get the edge.   California played better defense and won 77-62. (5)Texas A&M 67, (12)Utah St. 73 Chance of upset: 65%  Utah St. shoots the ball well and has a balanced attack that is tough to defend against.  Sloan will get his points for Texas A&M, but an upset by underrated Utah St. looks likely.   Texas A&M rolled, 69-53. (4)Purdue 69, (13)Siena 67 Chance of upset: 35%  Without Hummel, Purdue is very inconsistent.  If Purdue shoots well, they’ll win.  If they don’t and Franklin and Rossiter hit the boards hard for Siena, there will be an upset.   Purdue shot 45.8 percent and won 72-64. (6)Notre Dame 76, (11)Old Dominion 74 Chance of upset: 50%  Old Dominion has a very good team with a balanced offensive attack and guards who rebound.  Harangody will probably get the better of Lee inside, but if Lee holds his own, Notre Dame is in trouble.  Harangody went 2 for 9 and Old Dominion won 51-50. (3)Baylor 87,(14)Sam Houston St. 74 Chance of upset: 10%  Sam Houston St. will have a lot of trouble defending against Baylor.  Expect Dunn to score 20 or 30 in a Baylor blow out.  For Sam Houston St. to win, Baylor needs to fall apart and have in excess of 20 turnovers.  Dunn scored only 13, but Baylor did not fall apart.  Baylor won 68-59. (7)Richmond 71, (10)St. Mary's (Cal.) 74 Chance of upset: 50% Expect a close game between these two evenly matched teams.  The key will probably be rebounding.  If Allen and Samhan have a big game on the boards, St. Mary’s will win. St. Mary’s dominated the boards 39-16 and won the game 80-71. (2)Villanova 89, (15)Robert Morris 63 Chance of upset: less than 10%  Expect a blow out.  Villanova squeaked by 73-70 in overtime.  WEST (1)Syracuse 79, (16)Vermont 53 Chance of upset: less than 10%  The Syracuse defense will be too much for Vermont.  With or without Onuaku, Syracuse will roll.   Syracuse held Vermont to 34.8 percent shooting and won 79-56. (8)Gonzaga 62, (9)Florida St. 63  Chance of upset: 60%  Expect a close game between these two evenly matched teams.  The team that plays the better defense will come out on top of what is more likely than not going to be a low scoring affair.   Gonzaga held Florida St. to 35.6 percent shooting and won 67-60. (5)Butler 64, (12)UTEP 67 Chance of upset: 60%  Expect a good game.  Butler has to find a way to stop UTEP’s good shooting offense and to beat UTEP on the boards to win.  UTEP was winning at halftime, but Butler’s defense clamped down and Butler won 77-59. (4)Vanderbilt 72, (13)Murray St. 73 Chance of upset: 55%  The Racers are for real.  Expect Murray St. to pull off an upset in a close one.  The only way Vanderbilt wins is if they can get the ball inside and draw fouls.   Murray St. pulled off the upset in a close one, 66-65. (6)Xavier 75, (11)Minnesota 73  Chance of upset: 40%  Expect a close game.  Crawford is the key.  If he has a big game, Xaiver is likely to win.  Crawford scored 28 and Xavier won 65-54. (3)Pittsburgh 78, (14)Oakland 70 Chance of upset: 25%  Pittsburgh should win easily, but if Oakland’s guards have a great game, particularly Wright, Oakland could pull off the upset.  Wright was a dismal 2 for 7 from the field and Pittsburgh won easily, 89-66. (7)BYU 83, (10)Florida 71 Chance of upset: 15%  BYU can and likely will score a lot of points against Florida’s inconsistent defense.  BYU won 99-92 in double overtime. (2)Kansas St. 94, (15)North Texas 71 Chance of upset: less than 10%  Kansas St. will dominate.  Kansas St. dominated 82-62. SECOND ROUND EAST (1)Kentucky 72, (8)Texas 70  Chance of upset: 45% Kentucky has more offensive weapons and will likely get to the free throw line more and win, but if Bradley and James both have a good game, Texas could get the upset. Kentucky beat Wake Forest 90-60. (4)Wisconsin 70, (5)Temple 71 Chance of upset: 55% Expect a great game between these two evenly matched teams.  Cornell beat Wisconsin 87-69.    (3)New Mexico 76, (11)Washington 77 Chance of upset: 60% New Mexico needs to find a way to stop Washington’s offense to win.  Another key to the game is Hobson.  If he has a big game, New Mexico should win.   Washington shot 48.5 percent and won 82-64. (2)West Virginia 79, (10)Missouri 77 Chance of upset: 50% Yet another great matchup.  If Butler has a big game, West Virginia should win.  If the game is close, however, Missouri has a deeper bench and may pull off the upset.   Butler scored 28 points and pulled down 8 rebounds to lead West Virginia to a 68-59 victory. MIDWEST (1)Kansas 86, (9)Northern Iowa 62  Chance of upset: less than 10% The Kansas defense is too much for Northern Iowa.   In only one game out of 20 did Northern Iowa shoot over 40 percent.  The Panthers still lost.  In the event, the Kansas defense chose not to show up until the very end of the game.  It was too late.  Northern Iowa won 69-67. (4)Maryland 78, (5)Michigan St. 70 Chance of upset: 25% The team with the better guard play is likely to win and that is likely to be Maryland.   Durell Summers made 10 of 14 shots, including 6 of 7 from three-point range, to give Michigan St. the 85-83 victory. (3)Georgetown 72, (6)Tennessee 68 Chance of upset 50% Georgetown is likely to get to the free throw line more and, so long as Georgetown plays good defense, that should give Georgetown enough of an edge to win.   Tennessee beat Ohio 83-68. (2)Ohio St. 68, (10)Georgia Tech 64 Chance of upset: 30% Shumpert needs to have a terrific game offensively and defensively for Georgia Tech to win.   Shumpert was 3 of 11 from the field and Ohio St. won 75-66. SOUTH (1)Duke 83, (9)Louisville 77 Chance of upset: 45% The deciding factor of the game will be which team shoots the ball better.   Duke plays a little bit better defense and should win so long as Louisville’s sharp shooters don’t get hot.   Duke beat California 68-53. (4)Purdue 72, (12)Utah St. 71 Chance of upset: 40% The absence of Hummel is really going to be felt by Purdue in this matchup.  Purdue will need Moore and Johnson both to step up and have a good game for Purdue to win.   Purdue beat Texas A&M 63-61. (3)Baylor 77, (6)Notre Dame 71 Chance of upset: 35% This should be a great game.  Out of 20 games, five were decided by two points or less.  Baylor has the better defense and should win.  Baylor beat Old Dominion 76-68.  (2)Villanova 81, (10)St. Mary’s (Cal) 78 Chance of upset: 40% St. Mary’s could pull off an upset if they can stay close.  Five of 20 games were decided by three points or less.  Villanova should be able to score more points off of turnovers and get to the free throw line more to win.   In the event, St. Mary’s got to the free throw line more than twice as much as Villanova and pulled off the upset, 75-68. WEST (1)Syracuse 68, (9)Florida St. 58  Chance of upset: less than 10% Syracuse will defeat Florida St. in a low scoring defensive battle.   Syracuse beat Gonzaga 87-65. (12)UTEP 71, (13)Murray St. 69 Chance of upset: less than 50% Murray State won’t be able to stop Culpepper, but if Murray State’s guards have a good game, Murray State could stay close and pull off the upset.  Of 20 games, three went to overtime, and seven were decided by five points or less.  Butler beat Murray State 54-52. (3)Pittsburgh 67, (6)Xavier 70 Chance of upset: 50% Another great game.  Pittsburgh has more offensive weapons, but a combination of Crawfords’ scoring and great defense should give Xavier the slight edge.   Crawford scored 27 and Xavier won 71-68. (2)Kansas St. 78, (7)BYU 87 Chance of upset: 70% The team whose guards play better will likely win this game.  With Fredette in the backcourt, a BYU upset looks likely.   Pullen had the game of his life and scored 34 to lead Kansas St. to an 84-72 victory. THIRD ROUND EAST (1)Kentucky 73, (5)Temple 66 Chance of upset 30% The key matchup is between Patterson and Allen.  If Allen gets the better of Patterson and Temple forces lots of Kentucky turnovers, Temple could get the upset.   Kentucky beat Cornell 62-45. (2)West Virginia 83, (11)Washington 82 Chance of upset: 50% This game will be decided inside the paint.  The team that plays better inside will win.    West Virginia outrebounded Washington 49-29 and held Pondexter to 7 points on 3 of 9 shooting to win 69-56. MIDWEST (1)Kansas 75, (4)Maryland 69 Chance of upset: 35% Playing in St. Louis should give Kansas the edge if it is close.  Maryland likely needs to have a huge rebounding advantage to win.  Michigan St. beat Northern Iowa 59-52. (2)Ohio St. 68, (3)Georgetown 62 Chance of upset: 45% This game will come down to defense.  Ohio St. is likely to force a lot of Georgetown turnovers, but if Georgetown plays better defense, Georgetown will upset Ohio St. anyway.   Tennessee beat Ohio St. 76-73. SOUTH (1)Duke 77, (4)Purdue 74 Chance of upset 35% If Hummel were playing and had a big game, Purdue would pull the upset.  Without him, Purdue will need an outstanding defensive effort from everyone.   Duke beat Purdue 70-57. (2)Villanova 72, (3)Baylor 80 Chance of upset: 70% Playing in Houston will help Baylor.  The key to the game will be guard play.  If Dunn and Carter light it up from three-point range, Villanova will be going home.  If Reynolds and Fisher can stop them, Villanova will win.   Baylor beat St. Mary's 72-49. WEST (1)Syracuse 70, (12)UTEP 63 Chance of upset 25% UTEP will give Syracuse a good game, but unless the Orangemen have an off night defensively, they will win.  Butler beat Syracuse 63-59. (6)Xavier 71, (7)BYU 75 Chance of upset 65% Expect a close game.  Seven of 20 simulations were decided by two points or less.  Better guard play and home court advantage should lead to a BYU victory.   Kansas St. beat Xavier 101-96. FOURTH ROUND EAST (1)Kentucky 79, (2)West Virginia 74 Chance of upset: 40% Expect a great game.   Ten of 20 simulations were decided by four points or less.  Four of 20 went to double overtime.  The key to the game is John Wall.  If he has a good time, Kentucky will win easily.  If not, the game will be close and West Virginia can pull off the upset.  West Virginia beat Kentucky 73-66.  John Wall fouled out after shooting 7 for 18 from the field, including 1 for 5 from 3pt. range. MIDWEST (1)Kansas 77, (2)Ohio St. 67 Chance of upset: 35% Kansas should win, but if Buford, Diebler and Turner all have a great game, Ohio St. could get the upset.   Butler beat Kansas St. 63-56. SOUTH (1)Duke 75, (3)Baylor 74 Chance of upset: 50% Playing in Houston will help Baylor keep it very close.  The key to the game is which team plays better on the perimeter.  Duke is likely to be that team.   Duke won 78-71.  Duke was 11 for 23 from 3pt. range.  Baylor was 5 for 18. WEST (1)Syracuse 76, (7)BYU 80 Chance of upset: 55% Expect a close game.  Seven of 10 games were decided by three points or less.  Two of 10 went to overtime.  The home court advantage will help BYU.  Syracuse will need to have an excellent defensive effort to get the win.  Michigan St. beat Tennesee 70-69. FINAL FOUR (1)Kentucky 74, (1) Duke72 Kentucky’s defense should be too much for Duke.  Duke will need to shoot well from the perimeter to win. (1)Kansas 81, (7)BYU 79 Chance of upset: 45% Expect a great game.  Kansas should win, but if BYU’s guards have a great game, BYU will pull the upset. CHAMPIONSHIP (1)Kansas 71, (1)Kentucky 67 Kansas will force lots of Kentucky turnovers and win the game.